Monday, March 30, 2015

2016 Primaries – Ted Cruz at $2 Million First Quarter, O’Malley comes out Swinging

Ted Cruz (R-TX), the first to officially announce his candidacy for the republican nomination, has reached a $2 Million fundraising first quarter goal according to USA Today. Cruz did this, in the main, through social media. One would anticipate this will give him good standing going into the primary.

On the other slide, O’Malley, the first from the Democrat side to actively campaign for the DNC nomination has finally spoke out against the dynastic option of a Bush-Clinton rematch in 2016. The former Governor from Maryland is in a good spot to go forward with his campaign to lead the Democrats. (New York Times)

Not yet announced: Rand Paul, Scott Walker and Rick Perry, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Although one might think that it may be late to announce a candidacy – there is, historically a 1 year out November rule which was established in the 20th century – Both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton announced in October and November the year before. That said, Barrack Obama announced in 2007. In light of the trend towered earlier announcement, which appear to give an edge of sort, especially when there is no sitting president running, to those with the earliest ground games established.

Monday, March 23, 2015

2016 – GOP - Cruz In First – Rand Paul On Deck, DNC – O’Malley Most Likely, watch Julian Castro

The 2016 Presidential Sweepstakes begins today with the announcement that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), will be running for the Republican Nomination. Cruz, who made the announcement via Twitter, will be speaking at Liberty University today, an evangelical Christian college. (Mass Live).

Rand Paul (R-KY) is expected to announce his primary bid on April 7th, with with an “ambitious five state tour”according to the Washington Times.

On the DNC side, the likeliest first to announce will be the former Governor of Maryland Martin O’Malley, who, according to the New York Post, is a favorite if Hillary Clinton does not run (NY Post)

The likelihood of Clinton running successfully, if at all, is high. Going by DNC history, the more likely candidate to emerge would be the former Mayor of San Antonio who is currently being evasive about a VP roll in a Clinton campaign. (National Mortgage

O’Malley who spent both time and money is Iowa in 2014, and is well received, has yet to nail down the support. Apparently, those who would be pivotal are waiting for someone else, (Washington Post) could it be Castro?

In any event, and somewhat early to tell with few exceptions (Cruz, O’Malley, Paul), it will be a politically diverse slate of candidates, with perhaps the exception of the DNC, who has the Progressive’s front and center (thus less support Clinton). Given the recent thrashing that the standard politicians took in 2014, one might speculate that the candidate that is less “political party” would go the distance – to the White House. Cruz, in comments from any news article, is seen as a radical Tea Party, Canadian born (Constitutionally, that does not matter), super intelligent, but lacking experience, candidate. The fact that Cruz holds his own regardless of which side of the aisle he is taking to task makes him extremely interesting. Additionally, if he is acceptable to the Evangelical right, then, he will be the nominee and with the twenty million who sat out the last General election due to an inability to vote for a Mormon, he can secure the Presidency. Unless, of course, they are able to support multiple candidates, should the candidate social issues align with their own, on a personal level.

The top of the GOP field picks: Walker, Cruz, Paul, Perry. Top of the DNC field picks: O’Malley, possibly Castro, and that rascal from Vermont, Bernie Sanders. With O’Malley in the game, there is little incentive for Elizabeth Warren to step forward. If Warren is aware that Castro is going to jump in, then that would be a reason she is not doing the same. Clinton is being maligned from all sides – therefore, it is very unlikely that a credible female candidate will emerge in 2016 with enough stamina to break the glass ceiling.

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Rand Paul, Corey Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand – Get the Federal Government Out of States where Medical Marijuana is Law.

From Reuters: Rand Paul, introduces legislation today to prevent the Federal government from prosecuting individuals in states where Medical Marijuana is legal. He is joined by Democrat Senators, Corey Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand:

Paul has been an outspoken critic of the war on drugs and has said pot users should not be put in jail. He has pushed to legalize hemp, a less-potent version of the plant, for industrial purposes.

Last month, he accused former Florida governor Jeb Bush, a potential rival, of "hypocrisy" for opposing medical marijuana in Florida after admitting to pot use as a student.

Medical marijuana is now legal in 23 states and the District of Columbia, and voters have approved it for recreational use in four states and Washington, D.C.

But it remains illegal at the federal level. That disparity locks marijuana businesses out of the banking system and exposes users to arrest.

Paul's legislation would ensure that buyers and sellers in those states would not risk federal prosecution if they are complying with state and local laws, according to congressional aides and a marijuana-advocacy group.

What may at first appear to be bucking the “system”, is in essence, a state’s rights issue, as well, as a money saving issue – on the one hand, saving Federal dollars by not prosecuting these individuals and businesses in States where legalization of medical marijuana is legal, and 2) by allowing the businesses in these states to take full advantage of competing in the marketplace (job creation).

Smart move again, Senator Paul.

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